Can ORKS find an upset? Are Astralis overrated? Is the new GamerLegion lineup legit?

ESL Pro League is just around the corner, and with it comes a full month of Counter-Strike action. Teams have had a chance to settle following the player break, and if they have not already, they now need to start showing what they are made of ahead of the impending release of CS2.

The group stage of Pro League gives teams a healthy sample size of games to prove they are worth their salt, and the community will learn plenty about the character of these squads. Group A gives a brand-new team, ORKS, the chance to test their mettle, it gives Astralis the chance to prove they are not overrated right now, FURIA have an opportunity to live up to the hype their new lineup generated, and GamerLegion could confirm their new signings were anything but underwhelming.

ORKS: the unknown quantity

Lineup	Age	Rating
Kevin "HS" Tarn	26	-
Arek "Vegi" Nawojski	23	-
Łukasz "mwlky" Pachucki	20	-
Patryk "olimp" Woźniak	23	-
Rafał "sNx" Snopek	21	-

One of the more interesting lineups taking part in this group of ESL Pro League is certainly that of ORKS, a majority-Polish squad who have linked up with an Estonian journeyman and a Danish player-turned-coach to fill out their roster.

Arek "⁠Vegi⁠" Nawojski and Łukasz "⁠mwlky⁠" Pachucki previously represented Anonymo, Rafał "⁠sNx⁠" Snopek and Patryk "⁠olimp⁠" Woźniak were part of the PALOMA/Permitta/Ignis Serpens roster, and despite having a fair amount of tier two games under their belts, they haven’t featured much in tier one. Jesper "⁠TENZKI⁠" Plougmann, their coach, has some history of tier one and Major play dating back to 2016, whilst Kevin "⁠HS⁠" Tarn attended the PGL Major Krakow 2017. Make no mistake, however, this squad is certainly relatively raw when it comes to elite events.

In a very short space of time ORKS have already made something of a name for themselves, having qualified for ESL Pro League over the likes of Into the Breach and Bad News Eagles and scored two wins over OG. It has not, however, been entirely smooth sailing. A crack at the Gamers8 Europe open qualifier was ended by a defeat at the hands of 1WIN, and despite beating OG 2-1 in Pinnacle Cup V, their run was ended after losses to ECSTATIC, Eternal Fire and los kogutos.

This lack of consistency has at least allowed the majority-Polish squad to fly under the radar, and they are likely to arrive in Malta as one of the more underestimated teams. This is an advantage they will certainly be required to harness if they want to serve up some upset wins, and they have not been granted an easy beginning to the tournament as they open their campaign with a matchup against the world No. 1 team, Vitality.

ORKS will also have to ensure they unlock the full potential of their young AWPer mwlky, who, despite suffering from fairly dramatic swings in performance, has shown an immense ceiling in recent times. One example of this would be his staggering 39-frag, 1.85-rated performance on Nuke against Eternal Fire during Pinnacle Cup V. Not only did mwlky record these immense statistics in a map he ended up losing, he also racked up his monstrous frag total in regulation.

Astralis: overrated?

Lineup	Age	Rating
Nicolai "device" Reedtz	27	1.24
Benjamin "blameF" Bremer	26	1.21
Victor "Staehr" Staehr	19	1.00
Christian "Buzz" Andersen	20	0.99
Johannes "b0RUP" Borup	23	0.95

Placement	Event
3-4th	IEM Cologne 2023
1-4th	IEM Cologne 2023 Play-in
4-6th	BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2023
7-8th	BLAST Premier Spring Final 2023

Astralis have enjoyed a positive start to life with their freshly-revamped roster, qualifying from BLAST Fall Groups and grabbing a top-four at IEM Cologne. This run has seen the squad rise to No. 6 in the world rankings.

There are some obvious elements that have contributed to this success. Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz is continuing to produce elite AWPing performances, with the level of consistency that we have come to expect from one of the most regularly top-drawer AWPers of all time. Benjamin "⁠blameF⁠" Bremer has managed to maintain much of his output despite switching to the IGL role, something that few, including the man himself, expected would be the case. It also feels like Astralis have generally raised their skill-floor with their recent moves; Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander had been struggling badly with his individual performances, and no one had managed to claim the fifth spot as their own for some time.

Taking a slightly closer look at their recent successes, however, does suggest that Astralis might be enjoying a slightly inflated reputation right now. The Danes flopped the Gamers8 Europe open qualifier to kick off the season, losing convincingly to SAW, before opening their BLAST Fall Groups campaign with losses to Natus Vincere and BIG. They did recover to beat Complexity and Liquid to qualify for Fall Finals, but their showing at Fall Groups doesn’t look the most impressive upon reflection.

At IEM Cologne, Astralis most certainly bolstered their resume with some excellent victories, particularly their demolition of HEROIC in the quarter-finals. Four series wins over decent to strong opposition is nothing to be sniffed at, and a top-four finish is a thoroughly positive return for such a new team.

On the flip side, Astralis were fairly comfortably dispatched by G2 twice in Cologne, and their most impressive victory came against a HEROIC side renowned for disappearing in playoff games on big stages. Combine this with the fact that the Danes’ victories against Natus Vincere and HEROIC were handed to them via outrageous overperformances by Christian "⁠Buzz⁠" Andersen, and it is difficult to imagine blameF and co. repeating such a tournament run. It is a stretch to believe Buzz can replicate the type of form he showed against the aforementioned two teams with any regularity.

Astralis’ disappointing defeat by 00NATION, a brand-new team, at Pinnacle Cup V supports the idea we should not get carried away with how their recent resume looks on paper. Instead, it is probably fair to assess Astralis as a solid top-10 team right now, but a team that is probably short of seriously threatening to take trophies.

Regardless, Astralis should still be considered odds-on to be one of the teams to make it out of their group, they are the second-highest ranked and, overall, are in solid form. They do sit on the tougher side of the bracket, however, and may need a lower bracket run or the last chance stage to make it through to the playoffs.

FURIA: struggling to put it all together

Lineup	Age	Rating
Kaike "KSCERATO" Cerato	23	1.09
Yuri "yuurih" Santos	23	1.09
Marcelo "chelo" Cespedes	25	1.03
Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo	32	1.02
Andrei "arT" Piovezan	27	0.95

Placement	Event
9-16th	Gamers8 2023
9-12th	IEM Cologne 2023 Play-in

Of all of the newer rosters set to take part in Group A, FURIA have experienced the roughest beginning. They failed to make it through the IEM Cologne Play-in after suffering losses to Monte and The MongolZ, fell to Sprout in the IEM Sydney open qualifier, and crashed out of Gamers8 immediately at the hands of Natus Vincere. Totting up their record thus far under the leadership of Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo, FURIA have lost 12 of the 20 maps they have played, and have slipped to No. 23 in the world rankings.

There are signs that things have been improving in recent weeks, however. They made it to the final of Pinnacle Cup V with wins over solid top-15 side Monte and an in-form Espionage squad, and might have won the whole tournament had Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato not been suffering from medical issues before and during the final. During the aforementioned wins FalleN, Yuri "⁠yuurih⁠" Santos and KSCERATO were in good form.

FURIA’s biggest issue has been their CT sides. A 48.8% winrate overall since the player break on the favored side of the map is not the best return, despite getting the opening kill in a solid 55.6% of rounds, and sporting a decent 26.4% winrate in rounds they give up the opening death.

There is also a problem with FalleN’s widely varying performances on the two sides; the Brazilian legend sports a 0.93 rating thus far on the T side, but an impressive 1.18 rating on CT side. Getting an AWP to produce on both halves is a vital part of modern Counter-Strike, and FURIA need to figure out the offensive half of that puzzle if they are to progress from this group.

GamerLegion: overperforming once again?

Lineup	Age	Rating
Isak "isak" Fahlén	21	1.05
Frederik "acoR" Gyldstrand	26	1.04
Sebastian "volt" Maloș	21	0.95
Nicolas "Keoz" Dgus	22	0.92
Sanzhar "neaLaN" Iskhakov	23	0.83

Placement	Event
5-8th	Gamers8 2023
7-8th	IEM Cologne 2023

It’s fair to say that few expected GamerLegion to be competitive following their off-season moves. A team that were performing above their station, having made the grand final of the BLAST Paris Major, had their two most-touted pieces, Kamil "⁠siuhy⁠" Szkaradek and Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan, poached by bigger names, and replaced them with apparent downgrades.

Instead of crumbling, however, GamerLegion fought and scrapped their way to some promising performances, which have included wins over fnatic, The MongolZ and Apeks, and also a map victory in a loss to HEROIC. The European squad were also incredibly close to nicking an IEM Cologne playoff berth away from Cloud9, eventually falling in overtime on the final map. For a much-changed roster with a new IGL, this all most certainly counts as hitting the ground running.

Isak "⁠isak⁠" Fahlén has been the biggest revelation of the new-look GamerLegion, the Swedish rifler is the team’s highest-rated player since the end of the player break and has been producing some carry performances in their recent games. He is still variable in his output, having had a few stinkers as well, but if he can consistently play to the level he showed in the Cologne series against Cloud9 or the Gamers8 series against Apeks, GamerLegion have found their replacement for iM.

Another one of GamerLegion’s players, Sanzhar "⁠neaLaN⁠" Iskhakov, has started to revive his reputation after an ill-fated stint in Evil Geniuses. He has come into GamerLegion and helped mold their T sides into a potent threat, an impressive 48.9% winrate on offensive halves fueled by an even more impressive 31.1% winrate in 4v5 scenarios.

GamerLegion are well-poised to make their way to the upper final of this group, considering they face Grayhound in their opener and potentially either Movistar Riders or FURIA in the upper semi-final. Their showings at IEM Cologne and Gamers8 suggested they may be on the cusp of the elite, and progression through this group would lend further credence to that suggestion.

The rest of the pack

Vitality are the obvious favorites to make it out of Group A in first place, and with good reason. The No. 1 team in the world won the most recent Big Event, Gamers8, made top-four at IEM Cologne, and won two further Big Events in recent times, IEM Rio and the BLAST Paris Major. There is little reason to doubt Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire and co., expect them to charge through this group without trouble. Honestly, you can expect them to mount a serious challenge for the trophy.

If we go by world ranking, Ninjas in Pyjamas should easily be taking one of the four playoff berths available in Group A. The problem is, you never quite know what you are going to get with the Ninjas.

The Hampus "⁠hampus⁠" Poser-led squad suffered a disappointing defeat right out of the player break to Complexity, but came back to qualify from BLAST Fall Groups with an impressive win over Vitality. They made it to the group stage of IEM Cologne, only to crash out after being handily beaten by FaZe and Astralis. Their online form since has been shaky at best, and recent defeats on Mirage leave questions as to whether they have a reliable home map. Ninjas in Pyjamas could make it through the group, they could also just as easily crash out early.

Grayhound and Movistar Riders are two squads who will arrive in Malta without much in the way of expectation. Movistar Riders have made two changes recently and could, like ORKS, hope to spring some surprises, but their online form since the player break has been uninspiring at best, their most recent result being a loss to an unranked Zen squad.

Grayhound haven't played a HLTV-recorded game since crashing out of the IEM Cologne Play-in, and have struggled for a long time to translate their domination of their region into any tangible success internationally. The chances are slim that either Grayhound or Movistar Riders make it out of this group.